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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 46

Washington Commanders 14 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(11:07) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 25-C.Thompson.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.88 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model