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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 6

Washington Commanders 14 – Dallas Cowboys 31

What Actually Happened

(2:53) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to DAL 1 for 5 yards (31-B.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.07 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 6, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model