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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 49

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to DAL 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.25 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model