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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 22

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 4-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.58 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model