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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2019-09-15 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

JAX
31.5%
HOU
68.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.196 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • HOU offense: +0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.116 vs Gardner Minshew (JAX) +0.325 EPA/dropback (JAX starting Gardner Minshew in place of Nick Foles)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

JAX 19
–
HOU 27
Projected margin: HOU by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

JAX

Yannick Ngakoue DE Out Hamstring
Cedric Ogbuehi T Out Hamstring
Josh Oliver TE Out Hamstring
Marqise Lee WR Questionable Knee
A.J. Bouye CB Questionable Hip
Cam Robinson T Questionable Knee

HOU

Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Elbow
Senio Kelemete G Questionable Wrist
Greg Mancz C Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 12
–
HOU 13

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:58 FG HOU (1:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. JAX 0 – HOU 3
  • Q2 03:21 FG JAX (3:21) 4-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – HOU 3
  • Q2 00:02 FG HOU (:02) 7-K.Fairbairn 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. JAX 3 – HOU 6
  • Q4 11:41 TD HOU (11:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – HOU 12
  • Q4 06:05 FG JAX (6:05) 4-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 6 – HOU 13
  • Q4 00:36 TD JAX (:36) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 17-D.Chark for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 12 – HOU 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to HOU 22, Center-46-M.Orzech. 14-D.Carter to HOU 35 for 13 yards (42-A.Wingard). PENALTY on HOU-29-P.Gaines, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 27.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (10:38) 8-T.Daniel punts 48 yards to JAX 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-35-K.Crossen, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 15.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 90%

    (1:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 15 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:42) 8-T.Daniel punts 54 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 15 for no gain (33-A.Moore).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:04) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to HOU 33, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. Penalty on HOU-52-B.Mingo, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 18 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:44) 8-T.Daniel punts 44 yards to JAX 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 90%

    (3:21) 4-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:58) 8-T.Daniel punts 35 yards to JAX 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:51) 8-T.Daniel punts 43 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-T.Ervin to JAX 36 for 6 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 37%

    (3:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to HOU 1, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-31-B.Borders.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:35) 8-T.Daniel punts 39 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-T.Ervin to JAX 30 for no gain (33-A.Moore).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (11:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%

    (6:05) 4-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 18 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:47) 8-T.Daniel punts 44 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 32 for 3 yards (35-K.Crossen).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (2:19) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to JAX 42 for 1 yard (55-B.McKinney, 41-Z.Cunningham). Houston challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 77%

    (:52) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew scrambles right end to HOU 13 for 18 yards (55-B.McKinney; 57-B.Scarlett).