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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.54 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model