Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 73

Houston Texans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(6:51) 8-T.Daniel punts 43 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-T.Ervin to JAX 36 for 6 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.69 EP
58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model