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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to HOU 1, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-31-B.Borders.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.29 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model