Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 69

Houston Texans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(13:35) 8-T.Daniel punts 39 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-T.Ervin to JAX 30 for no gain (33-A.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.93 EP
53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model