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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 14

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 4-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.03 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model