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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 21

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.01 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model