Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 56

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 3

(13:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.61 EP
67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 56, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model