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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 51

Detroit Lions 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to LAC 3, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-49-C.Moore. Penalty on LAC-20-D.King, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.37 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model