Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to LAC: Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.006 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.170 EPA/dropback
- DET defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- DET offense: -0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 2
LAC
DET
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:02 TD LAC (8:02) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – DET 0
- Q1 04:20 TD DET (4:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 33-K.Johnson for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – DET 6
- Q2 00:04 FG LAC (:04) 1-T.Long 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor. LAC 10 – DET 6
- Q4 07:28 TD DET (7:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 10 – DET 12
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(14:00) 1-T.Long punts 55 yards to DET 16, Center-45-C.Mazza. 39-J.Agnew to DET 21 for 5 yards (98-I.Rochell; 31-A.Phillips).
-
Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(12:32) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to LAC 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.
-
Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(2:00) 1-T.Long punts 51 yards to DET 23, Center-45-C.Mazza. 39-J.Agnew to DET 33 for 10 yards (34-D.Watt). PENALTY on DET-35-M.Killebrew, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 24.
-
Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 52%
(12:28) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to LAC 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 20-D.King.
-
Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(10:50) 1-T.Long punts 44 yards to DET 28, Center-45-C.Mazza. 80-D.Amendola to DET 44 for 16 yards (42-U.Nwosu). PENALTY on DET-46-N.Bawden, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at DET 28. Penalty on DET-27-J.Coleman, Offensive Holding, declined.
-
Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 22Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 90%
(6:02) 5-M.Prater 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
-
Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:40) 1-T.Long punts 52 yards to DET 9, Center-45-C.Mazza. 80-D.Amendola to DET 20 for 11 yards (11-G.Davis).
-
Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 30%
(1:30) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to LAC 3, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-49-C.Moore. Penalty on LAC-20-D.King, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.
-
Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 89Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 64%
(6:36) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to LAC 47, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 20-D.King to DET 45 for 8 yards (32-T.Wilson, 52-C.Jones). PENALTY on LAC-42-U.Nwosu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 47.
-
Q3 LAC 4th & 3 at the 21Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 90%
(2:13) 1-T.Long 39 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor.
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 23Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EPp(convert) 66% p(FG) 88%
(11:50) 1-T.Long 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor.
-
Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 69%
(8:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones to LAC 31 for 4 yards (23-R.Jenkins).