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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 89

Detroit Lions 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to LAC 47, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 20-D.King to DET 45 for 8 yards (32-T.Wilson, 52-C.Jones). PENALTY on LAC-42-U.Nwosu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 47.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.32 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP