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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 21

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 1-T.Long 39 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.76 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP