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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 2-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to GB 30, Center-58-A.Cutting. 11-T.Davis to GB 30 for no gain (31-A.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.83 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model