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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2019-09-15 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

MIN
36.1%
GB
63.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.099 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) -0.055 EPA/dropback
  • MIN defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • GB on 3 more days rest than MIN
  • GB defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21
–
GB 23
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

MIN

Mackensie Alexander CB Out Elbow
Mike Hughes CB Doubtful Knee
Mark Fields CB Questionable Groin
Pat Elflein G Questionable Knee
Ben Gedeon LB Questionable Groin

GB

Oren Burks LB Out Chest
Darrius Shepherd WR Out Hamstring
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Back
Ka'dar Hollman CB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 16
–
GB 21

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:59 TD GB (12:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Williams for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – GB 6
  • Q1 03:23 TD GB (3:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 81-G.Allison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – GB 13
  • Q2 14:20 TD GB (14:20) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – GB 20
  • Q2 14:12 TD MIN (14:12) 33-D.Cook left tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – GB 21
  • Q2 00:55 FG MIN (:55) 5-D.Bailey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 10 – GB 21
  • Q3 09:19 TD MIN (9:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-14-S.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIN 16 – GB 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 79%

    (9:21) 5-D.Bailey 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:47) 2-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to GB 30, Center-58-A.Cutting. 11-T.Davis to GB 30 for no gain (31-A.Abdullah).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:36) 6-J.Scott punts 40 yards to MIN 21, Center-43-H.Bradley. 12-C.Beebe MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at MIN 21.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (8:04) 2-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to GB 23, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 18 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:06) 6-J.Scott punts 43 yards to MIN 30, Center-43-H.Bradley. 12-C.Beebe to MIN 40 for 10 yards (45-D.Vitale).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 85%

    (1:37) 30-J.Williams left tackle to MIN 27 for -2 yards (98-L.Joseph).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (:55) 5-D.Bailey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:30) 6-J.Scott punts 44 yards to MIN 37, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:56) 2-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to GB 25, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 17 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (5:41) 6-J.Scott punts 48 yards to MIN 12, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 12-C.Beebe.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 15 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 40%

    (1:00) 2-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to GB 1, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-38-K.Boyd. Penalty on GB-11-T.Davis, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:52) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to MIN 33, Center-43-H.Bradley. 12-C.Beebe MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 33. 12-C.Beebe ran ob at MIN 33 for no gain (44-T.Summers). PENALTY on MIN-38-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 33.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:55) 2-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to GB 22, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:21) 6-J.Scott punts 59 yards to MIN 25, Center-43-H.Bradley. 12-C.Beebe ran ob at MIN 40 for 15 yards (31-A.Amos).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (4:14) 6-J.Scott punts 48 yards to MIN 24, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 12-C.Beebe.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:24) 2-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to GB 21, Center-58-A.Cutting. 11-T.Davis to GB 21 for no gain (38-K.Boyd). Penalty on MIN-38-K.Boyd, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on GB-25-W.Redmond, Offensive Holding, offsetting.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 24%

    (:13) 85-R.Tonyan reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.