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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 61

Green Bay Packers 21 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 6-J.Scott punts 40 yards to MIN 21, Center-43-H.Bradley. 12-C.Beebe MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at MIN 21.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.29 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP