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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 2-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to GB 23, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.30 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP