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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 13

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(:55) 5-D.Bailey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model