Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 81

Green Bay Packers 21 – Minnesota Vikings 10

(:30) 6-J.Scott punts 44 yards to MIN 37, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.83 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model