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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(13:56) 2-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to GB 25, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP