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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 45

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 2-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to GB 1, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-38-K.Boyd. Penalty on GB-11-T.Davis, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.39 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model