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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 80

Green Bay Packers 21 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(14:52) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to MIN 33, Center-43-H.Bradley. 12-C.Beebe MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 33. 12-C.Beebe ran ob at MIN 33 for no gain (44-T.Summers). PENALTY on MIN-38-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.56 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 80, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.59 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 37, worth -2.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model