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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 2-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to GB 22, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.11 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model