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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 84

Green Bay Packers 21 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 6-J.Scott punts 59 yards to MIN 25, Center-43-H.Bradley. 12-C.Beebe ran ob at MIN 40 for 15 yards (31-A.Amos).

The Three Options

GO -3.18 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.00 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 84, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 42, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model