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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 21 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 6-J.Scott punts 48 yards to MIN 24, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 12-C.Beebe.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.89 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP