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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.43 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model