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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2019-09-15 · 20:20 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

PHI
47.1%
ATL
52.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.148 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.117 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 25
–
ATL 26
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

PHI

Kamu Grugier-Hill LB Out Knee
Jordan Mailata T Out Back
Nate Sudfeld QB Doubtful left Wrist

ATL

Matt Gono T Out Back
Russell Gage WR Questionable Head

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 20
–
ATL 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:33 FG ATL (9:33) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. PHI 0 – ATL 3
  • Q2 10:50 FG PHI (10:50) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 3 – ATL 3
  • Q2 05:04 TD ATL (5:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 18-C.Ridley for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – ATL 9
  • Q2 00:03 FG PHI (:03) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 6 – ATL 10
  • Q3 13:31 TD ATL (13:31) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – ATL 16
  • Q3 05:03 TD PHI (5:03) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 13-N.Agholor for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 12 – ATL 17
  • Q4 03:16 TD PHI (3:16) 72-H.Vaitai reported in as eligible. 11-C.Wentz right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-98-T.McKinley, Defensive Offside, declined. PHI 18 – ATL 17
  • Q4 02:20 TD ATL (2:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – ATL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 16 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 73%

    (9:33) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:23) 1-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to ATL 1, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-16-M.Hollins.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 15 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:49) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to PHI 43, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 10 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:40) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to PHI 49, Center-47-J.Harris. 43-D.Sproles to ATL 43 for 8 yards (80-L.Stocker).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 14 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (10:50) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 73%

    (7:47) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:46) 1-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to ATL 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 38-K.Barner ran ob at ATL 22 for 11 yards (30-C.Clement). ATL-27-D.Kazee was injured during the play. PENALTY on ATL-33-B.Wreh-Wilson, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 11.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 11 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:04) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to ATL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato. 38-K.Barner to ATL 18 for 6 yards (37-J.Cyprien; 36-R.Ford). PENALTY on ATL-14-J.Hardy, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at ATL 18.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (5:03) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 13-N.Agholor for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 11 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:53) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to ATL 39, Center-45-R.Lovato. 38-K.Barner to ATL 45 for 6 yards (52-Z.Brown; 58-L.Fort).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 19 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (11:48) 5-M.Bosher punts 37 yards to PHI 27, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 14 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:29) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 13-N.Agholor to ATL 18 for 43 yards (37-R.Allen) [99-A.Clayborn]. ATL-37-R.Allen was injured during the play. PHI-71-J.Peters was injured during the play. ATL-99-A.Clayborn was injured during the play. Both teams charged with injury timeout.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (:38) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to ATL 9 for 7 yards (26-I.Oliver; 22-K.Neal). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.