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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 4

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(5:03) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 13-N.Agholor for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 4, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model