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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 91

Philadelphia Eagles 12 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(13:53) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to ATL 39, Center-45-R.Lovato. 38-K.Barner to ATL 45 for 6 yards (52-Z.Brown; 58-L.Fort).

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.57 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 91, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 48, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model