Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 12

(11:48) 5-M.Bosher punts 37 yards to PHI 27, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.87 EP
75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model