4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 54

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(2:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.72 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -2.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model