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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 61

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(1:29) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 13-N.Agholor to ATL 18 for 43 yards (37-R.Allen) [99-A.Clayborn]. ATL-37-R.Allen was injured during the play. PHI-71-J.Peters was injured during the play. ATL-99-A.Clayborn was injured during the play. Both teams charged with injury timeout.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.09 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -0.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model