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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 16

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(:38) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to ATL 9 for 7 yards (26-I.Oliver; 22-K.Neal). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.85 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.39 EP