Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 82

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(3:49) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to PHI 43, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.62 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 82, worth -4.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model