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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 77

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:10) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to SEA 28, Center-57-K.Canaday. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 38 for 10 yards (44-T.Matakevich, 54-U.Gilbert).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model