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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2019-09-15 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

SEA
47.7%
PIT
52.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.217 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.150 EPA/dropback
  • PIT defense: +0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 25
–
PIT 26
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SEA

Joey Hunt C Out Ankle
David Moore WR Out Shoulder
Poona Ford DT Doubtful Calf
Tedric Thompson S Doubtful Hamstring
Neiko Thorpe CB Doubtful Hamstring
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Shoulder

PIT

Roosevelt Nix RB Out Knee
Joe Haden CB Questionable Shoulder
Maurkice Pouncey C Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 28
–
PIT 26

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:47 TD PIT (14:47) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. 30-J.Conner right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – PIT 6
  • Q2 08:45 TD SEA (8:45) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-W.Dissly for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – PIT 7
  • Q2 02:32 FG PIT (2:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. SEA 7 – PIT 10
  • Q3 09:54 TD SEA (9:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-W.Dissly for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – PIT 10
  • Q3 06:25 FG PIT (6:25) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. SEA 14 – PIT 13
  • Q3 03:04 TD SEA (3:04) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny right guard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – PIT 13
  • Q4 11:23 TD PIT (11:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 89-V.McDonald for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 21 – PIT 19
  • Q4 07:22 TD SEA (7:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-DK.Metcalf for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 27 – PIT 19
  • Q4 05:37 TD PIT (5:37) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 89-V.McDonald for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 28 – PIT 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:10) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to SEA 28, Center-57-K.Canaday. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 38 for 10 yards (44-T.Matakevich, 54-U.Gilbert).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 16 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 26%

    (10:51) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (10:02) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 52 yards to SEA 21, Center-57-K.Canaday. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 21 for no gain (80-J.Holton).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 20 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:11) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to PIT 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-R.Switzer MUFFS catch, touched at PIT 12, and recovers at PIT 12. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 13 for 1 yard (44-N.Bellore).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:30) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to SEA 16, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:19) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to SEA 32, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:04) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to PIT 17, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 28 for 11 yards (27-M.Blair).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (2:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 14 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 55%

    (:03) (Field Goal formation) 5-J.Myers 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:32) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to PIT 19, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 9 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (6:25) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:02) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to SEA 11, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-44-T.Matakevich.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 72%

    (2:00) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle to PIT 31 for 2 yards (97-C.Heyward).