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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(7:19) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to SEA 32, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.98 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 29, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP