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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(2:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.36 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +0.86 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -1.14 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model