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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 40

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Field Goal formation) 5-J.Myers 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.52 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model