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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 78

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:32) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to PIT 19, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.97 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 35, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP