Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:11) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to PIT 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-R.Switzer MUFFS catch, touched at PIT 12, and recovers at PIT 12. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 13 for 1 yard (44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.00 EP
74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model