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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 34

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 4-R.Bullock 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.96 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model