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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2019-09-15 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

SF
39.9%
CIN
60.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.224 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 22
–
CIN 26
Projected margin: CIN by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SF

Tevin Coleman RB Out Ankle
Jalen Hurd WR Out Back
Trent Taylor WR Out Foot
Nick Bosa DE Questionable Ankle
Jimmie Ward S Questionable Hand

CIN

Cordy Glenn T Out Concussion
A.J. Green WR Out Ankle
Clayton Fejedelem S Questionable Ankle
Joe Mixon RB Questionable Ankle
Trayveon Williams RB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 41
–
CIN 17

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:21 TD SF (11:21) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left to 11-M.Goodwin for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – CIN 0
  • Q1 06:44 TD CIN (6:44) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 85-T.Eifert for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – CIN 6
  • Q1 02:46 TD SF (2:46) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 31-R.Mostert for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – CIN 7
  • Q2 10:11 TD SF (10:11) 30-J.Wilson left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – CIN 7
  • Q2 07:02 FG CIN (7:02) 4-R.Bullock 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. SF 21 – CIN 10
  • Q2 00:06 FG SF (:06) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 24 – CIN 10
  • Q3 12:15 TD SF (12:15) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 19-D.Samuel for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 30 – CIN 10
  • Q3 04:39 FG SF (4:39) 9-R.Gould 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 34 – CIN 10
  • Q4 15:00 TD SF (15:00) 30-J.Wilson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 40 – CIN 10
  • Q4 00:56 TD CIN (:56) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 11-J.Ross III for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 41 – CIN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 11 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:15) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to SF 49, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 17 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:24) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to SF 25, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 18 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 68%

    (12:53) 4-R.Bullock 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%

    (7:02) 4-R.Bullock 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 12 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 56%

    (4:49) (Punt formation) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to CIN 3, Center-40-C.Holba, downed by SF-32-D.Reed Jr..

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 90%

    (4:39) 9-R.Gould 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:17) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to SF 18, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 18 for no gain (40-B.Wilson).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:37) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to SF 36, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-R.James Jr. pushed ob at SF 40 for 4 yards (50-Jo.Evans).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 16 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 90%

    (7:08) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 11 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 84%

    (4:05) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep right to 85-T.Eifert (32-D.Reed Jr.).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to CIN 28, Center-40-C.Holba, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (:56) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 11-J.Ross III for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.