Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 89

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:15) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to SF 49, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.38 EP
64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 89, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model