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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 19

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 4-R.Bullock 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.10 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model