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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 39

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(4:49) (Punt formation) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to CIN 3, Center-40-C.Holba, downed by SF-32-D.Reed Jr..

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.95 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model