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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 85

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 41

What Actually Happened

(13:37) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to SF 36, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-R.James Jr. pushed ob at SF 40 for 4 yards (50-Jo.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.84 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model